The United States has become a fount of conflicting economic messages. Headlines touting a stronger-than-expected jobs report appear alongside a declaration by the US Treasury Department that the country “insolvent.” Stories welcoming the unexpected resilience of global trade are accompanied by warnings that investors are abandoning private credit funds over worries about bad loans. The US-Israeli war on Iran—which has sent energy prices soaring and produced fertilizer shortages that could disrupt global food supplies—has injected yet more uncertainty into the picture.

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