{"id":3950,"date":"2026-04-15T04:12:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T04:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/?p=3950"},"modified":"2026-04-19T03:14:34","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T03:14:34","slug":"indonesia-braces-for-possible-godzilla-el-nino-as-fire-season-escalates-early","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/?p=3950","title":{"rendered":"Indonesia braces for possible \u2018Godzilla El Ni\u00f1o\u2019 as fire season escalates early"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"post-317563\">\n<div class=\"bulletpoints-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"bulletpoints\">\n<ul>\n<li><em>The 2026 fire season in Indonesia is already showing early signs of escalation, as burned areas reached 32,637 hectares by February, 20 times higher than the same period in 2025.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Some global forecasts suggest this year\u2019s predicted El Ni\u00f1o could become one of the strongest in at least a decade, raising the risk of prolonged drought and widespread fires, although significant uncertainty remains over how intense it will ultimately be.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Fire monitoring by the watchdog Pantau Gambut show that many hotspots are in oil palm and timber concession areas, which the group says suggests that legal permits alone do not guarantee fire-safe land management and highlights gaps in oversight and enforcement.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"content-expander\"><span>See All Key Ideas<\/span><\/button><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>JAKARTA \u2014 Indonesia is entering the 2026 fire season with early signs of escalation, as burned area surges even before the dry season peak and forecasts raise the possibility of a so-called \u201cGodzilla\u201d El Ni\u00f1o later this year.<\/p>\n<p>Burned area reached 32,637 hectares (80,650 acres) by February \u2014 about three times the size of Paris, 20 times higher than the same period last year \u2014 even before the dry season has fully set in.<\/p>\n<p>Scientists say this early surge could signal the start of a more intense fire season, especially as climate forecasts point to the possible return of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<p>Some global forecasts suggest the event could become <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalgeographic.com\/environment\/article\/super-el-nino-extreme-weather-climate\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external\">one of the strongest in at least a decade<\/a>, raising the risk of prolonged drought and widespread fires, although significant uncertainty remains over how intense it will ultimately be.<\/p>\n<p>A strong El Ni\u00f1o would also likely reshape global weather patterns and could push global temperatures to record levels in 2027, due to the lagged warming effect the phenomenon has on the climate system.<\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o refers to a warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can disrupt weather patterns worldwide. In Indonesia, it is typically associated with drier conditions and heightened fire risk.<\/p>\n<p>Indonesian agencies have at times referred to the potential event as a Godzilla El Ni\u00f1o, a nonscientific term used to describe an unusually strong episode that could significantly intensify drought and fire risk.<\/p>\n<p>Indonesia\u2019s meteorological agency, BMKG, says there is a 50-80% chance of a weak to moderate El Ni\u00f1o developing in the second half of 2026.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, forecasts from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.shtml\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external\">leave open the possibility of a stronger event<\/a>, with a 25% chance of a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o and a 50% chance of a \u201cstrong\u201d one, based on projected ocean warming of at least 1.5\u00b0 Celsius (2.7\u00b0 Fahrenheit) above average.<\/p>\n<p>Historical data suggest Indonesia\u2019s fires follow a consistent seasonal pattern, intensifying from midyear and peaking between September and October, according to a recent study published in <a href=\"https:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plosone\/article?id=10.1371\/journal.pone.0331831\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external\"><em>PLOS ONE<\/em><\/a>. The study also found that the most severe fire years tend to coincide with climate anomalies such as El Ni\u00f1o and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a pattern that has raised concern among researchers as similar conditions begin to emerge in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Even before El Ni\u00f1o fully develops, hotspots are already flaring up across the country.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_296396\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A boy rides a bicycle through a thick smog haze from peatland and forest fires in Lebung Itam village, Tulung Selapan subdistrict, Ogan Komering Ilir Regency, South Sumatra. This area often burns during dry season since the activities of logging concessions T. Bumi Mekar Hijau (BMH), PT.\u00a0Image courtesy of \u00a9 Abriansyah Liberto \/ Greenpeace.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><strong>Burning season<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Fire monitoring by the independent watchdog Pantau Gambut detected 23,546 hotspots in peatland areas since January 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Peatlands are carbon-rich ecosystems that store around 20 times more carbon than typical mineral soils. When burned, they release large amounts of carbon dioxide, making them a major source of Indonesia\u2019s greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n<p>In March alone, Pantau Gambut identified 12,942 hotspots across peat ecosystems, nearly tripling the February figure of 5,114.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/28358678\/embed\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" class=\"flourish-embed-iframe\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width:100% ,height:600px ,\" sandbox=\"allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sipongi.gakkum.kehutanan.go.id\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external\">Government data<\/a> based on NASA\u2019s Terra and Aqua MODIS satellites also show an increase in fire activity, although the figures are not directly comparable due to differences in methodology and scope. As of April 14, satellites had detected 735 high-confidence hotspots nationwide, nearly three times higher than the same period in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>With fire activity already rising ahead of the peak dry season, researchers warn Indonesia may be entering the early stages of another severe fire year, like the one in 2015.<\/p>\n<p>In 2015, Godzilla El Ni\u00f1o brought prolonged and more intense dry season to Indonesia, resulting in toxic haze from the burning of plantations in the country traveling as far as neighboring Malaysia and Singapore, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0305750X19303663\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external\">causing more than half a million respiratory infections<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>To prevent a repeat of past transboundary haze crises, the government is prioritizing fire control in border regions. Deputy Forestry Minister Rohmat Marzuki said efforts such as hotspot monitoring, patrols and early warning systems are being focused in Riau, Riau Islands and West Kalimantan.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese areas are a priority because they are close to neighboring countries,\u201d he said, as quoted by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metrotvnews.com\/read\/NleC91WE-karhutla-dekat-perbatasan-jadi-prioritas-cegah-asap-ke-negara-tetangga\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external\">local media<\/a> on April 8.<\/p>\n<p>Environment Minister Hanif Faisol Nurofiq has also called for stronger coordination between central and regional governments, along with stricter law enforcement against those responsible for fires.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cForest fires are among the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions \u2026 causing environmental damage, chronic health impacts and trillions of rupiah in economic losses,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_273725\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-273725\" src=\"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1776568470_840_Indonesia-braces-for-possible-\u2018Godzilla-El-Nino-as-fire-season.jpg\" alt=\"A haze hanging over Singapore in Sept., 2015, from buring forests in Sumatra and Borneo.\" width=\"768\" height=\"512\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1776568470_840_Indonesia-braces-for-possible-\u2018Godzilla-El-Nino-as-fire-season.jpg 768w, https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/09\/28152440\/haze-over-singapore-1200x800.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/09\/28152440\/haze-over-singapore-610x407.jpg 610w, https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/09\/28152440\/haze-over-singapore-350x233.jpg 350w, https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/09\/28152440\/haze-over-singapore.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A haze hanging over Singapore in Sept., 2015, from buring forests in Sumatra and Borneo. Image by Charles EYES PiX via Flickr (CC BY-SA 2.0).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><strong>Corporate responsibility<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Pantau Gambut also found that many hotspots are located within concession areas, including 6,192 hotspots in oil palm concessions and 1,334 in timber concessions.<\/p>\n<p>The group says this suggests that legal permits alone do not guarantee fire-safe land management and highlights gaps in oversight and enforcement.<\/p>\n<p>Pantau Gambut campaigner Putra Saptian said the government should ensure concession holders take responsibility for restoring burned areas, so the cost of environmental damage does not fall on the state.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSupervision of peat ecosystem-based restoration must be strengthened to ensure that permit holders\u2019 restoration obligations cover all ecological impacts caused, both within and beyond their concession boundaries, in order to prevent recurring fiscal losses for the state,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_273727\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-273727\" src=\"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1776568470_852_Indonesia-braces-for-possible-\u2018Godzilla-El-Nino-as-fire-season.jpg\" alt=\"Haze rising from an oil palm plantation and forest in Riau province.\" width=\"768\" height=\"512\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1776568470_852_Indonesia-braces-for-possible-\u2018Godzilla-El-Nino-as-fire-season.jpg 768w, https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/09\/28154349\/fire-in-indonesia-610x407.jpg 610w, https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/09\/28154349\/fire-in-indonesia-350x233.jpg 350w, https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/09\/28154349\/fire-in-indonesia.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Haze rising from an oil palm plantation and forest in Riau province. Image by Rhett A. Butler \/ Mongabay.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><strong>Health impacts<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>The fires have already begun affecting air quality in parts of Indonesia.<\/p>\n<p>In Pekanbaru, the capital of Riau province, haze <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metrotvnews.com\/read\/NrWC8o8P-pekanbaru-diselimuti-kabut-asap-jarak-pandang-hanya-1-2-km\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external\">has reduced visibility<\/a> at the main airport to around 1.2 kilometers (a quarter mile), according to local meteorological observations.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this year, residents in Siak also reported persistent haze linked to nearby fires. One resident, Sugiono, said the haze lasted throughout the day \u2014 unlike typical morning fog \u2014 raising concerns about its impact on public health.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen it gets hazy like this, it\u2019s a sign that ARI [acute respiratory infection] will spread again among the community,\u201d he told <a href=\"https:\/\/riau.suara.com\/read\/2026\/02\/12\/150449\/kabut-asap-muncul-di-kota-siak-warga-cerita-trauma-kena-ispa\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external\">local media<\/a>. \u201cAt that time, because of the haze, my whole family had to be hospitalized.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Health officials warn that prolonged dry conditions can worsen air pollution by reducing rainfall that would otherwise help clear pollutants from the atmosphere.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIncreases in temperature and environmental changes can also trigger the spread of vector-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria,\u201d Health Ministry spokesperson Aji Muhawarman <a href=\"https:\/\/en.antaranews.com\/news\/412021\/indonesias-health-ministry-warns-of-godzilla-el-nio-impacts\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external\">said<\/a>, noting that stagnant water can become breeding grounds for mosquitoes.<\/p>\n<p>He added that deteriorating sanitation and water quality during drought conditions could also increase the risk of diseases such as diarrhea, typhoid, cholera and leptospirosis.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_273960\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-273960\" src=\"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1776568470_175_Indonesia-braces-for-possible-\u2018Godzilla-El-Nino-as-fire-season.jpg\" alt=\"A farmer waters his crops behind his house in the thick smoke from wild fires.\" width=\"768\" height=\"512\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1776568470_175_Indonesia-braces-for-possible-\u2018Godzilla-El-Nino-as-fire-season.jpg 768w, https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/10\/05111837\/farmer-in-haze-kalimantan-indonesia-1200x800.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/10\/05111837\/farmer-in-haze-kalimantan-indonesia-610x407.jpg 610w, https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/10\/05111837\/farmer-in-haze-kalimantan-indonesia-350x233.jpg 350w, https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/10\/05111837\/farmer-in-haze-kalimantan-indonesia.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A farmer waters his crops behind his house in the thick smoke from wild fires. Image by Aulia Erlangga\/CIFOR via Flickr (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><strong>Food insecurity<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Beyond fires and health impacts, experts warn that El Ni\u00f1o could also threaten Indonesia\u2019s food production.<\/p>\n<p>Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency, said drought could affect key rice-producing regions along Java\u2019s northern coast.<\/p>\n<p>Past El Ni\u00f1o events have had significant impacts on agriculture. The 1997-98 episode reduced rice production by up to 6% compared with earlier years, while the 2024 El Ni\u00f1o cut output by about 2.3 million tons in the first four months of the year, a drop of 17.5% year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen El Ni\u00f1o occurs, drought conditions become more extreme, leading to clean water crises, crop failures and food insecurity,\u201d said Musdalifah, a food campaigner at WALHI.<\/p>\n<p>She added that Indonesia\u2019s vulnerability is compounded by long-term land use changes, including the conversion of agricultural land into plantations and large-scale infrastructure projects.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, Indonesia remains reliant on food imports. Data from Statistics Indonesia show that the country imported 13,629 tons of food commodities in the first quarter of 2025.<\/p>\n<p>The National Food Agency says it has prepared government rice reserves to anticipate potential disruptions. But Musdalifah stressed that food security is not only about supply.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is also about ensuring whether people, especially lower-income and poor communities, can access it, and ensuring that food is fit for consumption,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Citations:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Gaveau,\u00a0D.\u00a0L., Descals,\u00a0A., &#038; Salim,\u00a0M.\u00a0A. (2026). Nationwide monthly burned area monitoring in Indonesia using Sentinel-2. <em>PLOS One<\/em>, <em>21<\/em>(4), e0331831. doi:<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0331831\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external\">10.1371\/journal.pone.0331831<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Edwards,\u00a0R.\u00a0B., Naylor,\u00a0R.\u00a0L., Higgins,\u00a0M.\u00a0M., &#038; Falcon,\u00a0W.\u00a0P. (2020). Causes of Indonesia\u2019s forest fires. <em>World Development<\/em>, <em>127<\/em>, 104717. doi:<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0305750X19303663?via%3Dihub\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external\">10.1016\/j.worlddev.2019.104717<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>Banner image: A student goes to school wearing a mask in the haze that blankets the city of Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan in 2017. Image by Aulia Erlangga\/CIFOR via Flickr (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0).<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><b>FEEDBACK: Use\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/form.jotform.com\/72624901146150\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">this form<\/a>\u00a0to send a message to the author of this post. If you want to post a public comment, you can do that at the bottom of the page.<\/b><\/p>\n<div id=\"single-article-footer\">\n<div class=\"container in-column about-editor-translator gap--40 pv--80\">\n<div class=\"container grid--3 repeat gap--40\">\n<div class=\"in-row gap--16\">\n<div class=\"author-avatar\">\n                    <img alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1776294719_245_Repeated-failures-expose-gaps-in-Indonesias-nickel-waste-management.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/3a4b50c733437eef61e36a4c4e10b4ea73fc3c73f36cc9778e62e20895a75731?s=64&#038;d=identicon&#038;r=g 2x\" class=\"avatar avatar-32 photo\" height=\"32\" width=\"32\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"\/>        <\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<p>                            <span class=\"article-comments\"><a href=\"\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"\/><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 2026 fire season in Indonesia is already showing early signs of escalation, as burned areas reached 32,637 hectares by February, 20 times higher than the same period in 2025. Some global forecasts suggest this year\u2019s predicted El Ni\u00f1o could become one of the strongest in at least a decade, raising the risk of prolonged [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3951,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[82],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nature-biodiversity"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3950"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3950\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3952,"href":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3950\/revisions\/3952"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3951"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatevdo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}