The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC is the clearest expression yet of its desire to break from the Saudi-led regional order. The result could be a more fragmented Middle East marked by intensifying rivalries among Gulf powers, widening proxy conflicts, and chronic instability.
BRAZZAVILLE/DOHA—The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ after nearly six decades of membership has dealt a major structural blow to the cartel. Losing its third-largest producer—capable of pumping nearly five million barrels a day, with ambitions to expand further—will make it increasingly difficult for the bloc to perform its central function: managing supply and stabilizing oil prices. Over time, the UAE’s freedom to produce at will, particularly once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, is likely to drive down crude prices and increase market volatility.