The Gulf states have long hedged their diplomatic and security bets, attempting to strike a balance between those that might protect them from threats (especially the US) and those doing the threatening (such as Iran). But this approach has left them highly vulnerable and must be replaced by a unified approach to allies and foes.

PARIS—No one knows whether the ceasefire between the United States and Iran will pave the way for a diplomatic settlement to end the war. But two things are already clear: America’s strategic credibility has been dealt a severe blow, and the Gulf states have ended up in an exceptionally unenviable position.

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