The current ceasefire allows us to make a preliminary assessment of the war and its effects. China and Russia were clear winners, while the Gulf Arab states suffered a reputational hit, and the combatants all had decidedly mixed outcomes, although the United States and Israel gained the least.

NEW YORK—A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been agreed, but much remains unclear. What will it entail? Will it last? Will it even materialize? Most importantly, where will it lead?

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